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ietf-draft-analyzer/data/reports/trends.md
Christian Nennemann 8515e46d5d Architecture designer, author cluster names, FP filtering, new pages 
- Add /architecture page: system-of-systems view with 8 layers, component
  cards, gap markers, source coverage chart, and clickable detail sidebar
- Give author clusters meaningful names from orgs + draft topic keywords
- Filter false positives (73 drafts, 54 ideas) from idea clusters,
  architecture, ideas listing, and search results
- Add NIST source fetcher with curated catalog of 11 AI publications
- New pages: trends, complexity, sources, false positives, idea analysis
- Clickable gap cards with full details (evidence, priority, nearby work)
- Component detail panel with linked drafts and top ideas

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-03-08 19:58:40 +01:00

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# Temporal Evolution Report
*Generated 2026-03-08 18:05 UTC — 500 drafts, 87 months*
## Monthly Overview
| Month | Submissions | New Authors | Cum. Ideas | Avg Novelty | Avg Maturity | Avg Relevance | Safety Ratio |
|-------|------------:|------------:|-----------:|------------:|-------------:|--------------:|-------------:|
| 1995-12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - |
| 1996112 | 1 → | 0 | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - |
| 1997-12 | 1 → | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - |
| 1997123 | 1 → | 0 | 2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - |
| 1999-08 | 2 ↑ | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - |
| 1999020 | 1 ↓ | 0 | 3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - |
| 2002121 | 2 ↑ | 0 | 5 | 3.0 | 5.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 2003012 | 1 ↓ | 0 | 7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - |
| 2004-01 | 1 → | 0 | 9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - |
| 2007-02 | 1 → | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - |
| 2007103 | 1 → | 0 | 10 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - |
| 2009-10 | 1 → | 0 | 11 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - |
| 2009-11 | 1 → | 0 | 12 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - |
| 2010-02 | 1 → | 0 | 13 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - |
| 2010-06 | 2 ↑ | 0 | 16 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - |
| 2011-04 | 2 → | 0 | 18 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - |
| 2012-02 | 1 ↓ | 0 | 19 | 2.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | - |
| 2013-03 | 3 ↑ | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - |
| 2014-03 | 1 ↓ | 0 | 20 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - |
| 2014-10 | 1 → | 0 | 21 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - |
| 2014032 | 1 → | 0 | 22 | 2.0 | 5.0 | 4.0 | - |
| 2015-11 | 2 ↑ | 0 | 25 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - |
| 2015/CD | 1 ↓ | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - |
| 2015121 | 2 ↑ | 0 | 26 | 2.5 | 5.0 | 4.0 | - |
| 2016-01 | 3 ↑ | 0 | 30 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - |
| 2017-05 | 1 ↓ | 0 | 31 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 2017-06 | 3 ↑ | 0 | 32 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - |
| 2017-10 | 1 ↓ | 0 | 33 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - |
| 2018-01 | 1 → | 0 | 35 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 2018-02 | 1 → | 0 | 36 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - |
| 2019-02 | 1 → | 0 | 37 | 3.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | - |
| 2019-07 | 1 → | 0 | 38 | 3.0 | 5.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 2019-11 | 1 → | 0 | 40 | 3.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | - |
| 2020 | 1 → | 0 | 41 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | - |
| 2020-03 | 1 → | 0 | 42 | 3.0 | 5.0 | 4.0 | - |
| 2020-08 | 1 → | 0 | 43 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 2020-09 | 1 → | 0 | 44 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | - |
| 2021 | 2 ↑ | 0 | 45 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - |
| 2021-01 | 1 ↓ | 0 | 47 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | - |
| 2021-03 | 1 → | 0 | 49 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - |
| 2021-07 | 1 → | 0 | 51 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 5.0 | - |
| 2021-08 | 1 → | 0 | 52 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | - |
| 2021-11 | 1 → | 0 | 53 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | - |
| 2021-12 | 1 → | 0 | 54 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - |
| 2022 | 3 ↑ | 0 | 57 | 3.0 | 4.3 | 4.3 | - |
| 2022-05 | 1 ↓ | 0 | 0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 2022-06 | 2 ↑ | 0 | 59 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 4.5 | - |
| 2022-07 | 1 ↓ | 0 | 60 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 2022-08 | 3 ↑ | 0 | 64 | 2.5 | 4.5 | 2.5 | - |
| 2022-09 | 1 ↓ | 0 | 66 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - |
| 2022-10 | 2 ↑ | 0 | 68 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | - |
| 2022-11 | 1 ↓ | 0 | 69 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | - |
| 2022/AW | 2 ↑ | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - |
| 2022/DA | 2 → | 0 | 71 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 3.5 | - |
| 2023 | 3 ↑ | 0 | 74 | 3.7 | 4.7 | 4.7 | - |
| 2023-01 | 2 ↓ | 0 | 76 | 3.0 | 4.5 | 5.0 | - |
| 2023-03 | 1 ↓ | 0 | 77 | 3.0 | 5.0 | 4.0 | - |
| 2023-05 | 1 → | 0 | 78 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 5.0 | - |
| 2023-06 | 1 → | 0 | 79 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 5.0 | - |
| 2023-07 | 3 ↑ | 0 | 81 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 4.0 | - |
| 2023-08 | 1 ↓ | 0 | 82 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | - |
| 2023-11 | 1 → | 0 | 84 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 2024 | 3 ↑ | 0 | 87 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 5.0 | - |
| 2024-01 | 10 ↑ | 17 | 98 | 3.0 | 3.8 | 4.0 | - |
| 2024-02 | 5 ↓ | 5 | 103 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 4.0 | - |
| 2024-03 | 3 ↓ | 5 | 106 | 3.0 | 4.5 | 4.0 | - |
| 2024-04 | 9 ↑ | 9 | 114 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 4.0 | - |
| 2024-05 | 5 ↓ | 11 | 119 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 3.5 | - |
| 2024-06 | 3 ↓ | 8 | 121 | 3.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | - |
| 2024-07 | 13 ↑ | 10 | 136 | 2.8 | 4.2 | 3.8 | - |
| 2024-08 | 4 ↓ | 5 | 140 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 4.0 | - |
| 2024-09 | 13 ↑ | 34 | 153 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 4.0 | - |
| 2024-10 | 3 ↓ | 9 | 157 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | - |
| 2024-11 | 6 ↑ | 12 | 164 | 2.8 | 4.2 | 3.6 | - |
| 2024-12 | 10 ↑ | 14 | 174 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 4.4 | - |
| 2025 | 1 ↓ | 0 | 175 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | - |
| 2025-01 | 8 ↑ | 18 | 182 | 3.7 | 3.0 | 4.3 | - |
| 2025-02 | 3 ↓ | 4 | 185 | 2.7 | 4.7 | 3.7 | - |
| 2025-03 | 6 ↑ | 4 | 192 | 3.0 | 4.3 | 3.2 | - |
| 2025-04 | 13 ↑ | 31 | 206 | 3.0 | 3.7 | 4.2 | - |
| 2025-05 | 8 ↓ | 13 | 214 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 4.3 | - |
| 2025-06 | 5 ↓ | 15 | 222 | 3.0 | 3.7 | 4.0 | - |
| 2025-07 | 9 ↑ | 4 | 231 | 3.8 | 3.1 | 4.1 | - |
| 2025-08 | 10 ↑ | 15 | 242 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 3.7 | - |
| 2025-09 | 19 ↑ | 38 | 263 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 3.8 | - |
| 2025-10 | 65 ↑ | 90 | 330 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 4.1 | - |
| 2025-11 | 27 ↓ | 65 | 390 | 3.6 | 3.1 | 4.3 | - |
## Category Growth Summary
| Category | Total | Last 3mo | Prev 3mo | Growth |
|----------|------:|---------:|---------:|-------:|
| A2A protocols | 49 | 34 | 3 | +1033% |
| AI safety/alignment | 53 | 13 | 5 | +160% |
| Agent discovery/reg | 33 | 20 | 3 | +567% |
| Agent identity/auth | 58 | 27 | 7 | +286% |
| Autonomous netops | 52 | 27 | 2 | +1250% |
| Data formats/interop | 105 | 44 | 6 | +633% |
| Human-agent interaction | 33 | 11 | 3 | +267% |
| ML traffic mgmt | 29 | 17 | 2 | +750% |
| Model serving/inference | 25 | 9 | 2 | +350% |
| Other AI/agent | 33 | 3 | 0 | new |
| Policy/governance | 101 | 19 | 5 | +280% |
## Fastest Growing Categories (early vs late half)
- **Model serving/inference**: new (0 → 25 drafts)
- **A2A protocols**: +4700% (1 → 48 drafts)
- **Agent discovery/reg**: +3100% (1 → 32 drafts)
- **Agent identity/auth**: +2700% (2 → 56 drafts)
- **Other AI/agent**: +1450% (2 → 31 drafts)
- **Data formats/interop**: +1112% (8 → 97 drafts)
- **Autonomous netops**: +1100% (4 → 48 drafts)
- **ML traffic mgmt**: +767% (3 → 26 drafts)
- **Policy/governance**: +718% (11 → 90 drafts)
- **AI safety/alignment**: +683% (6 → 47 drafts)
- **Human-agent interaction**: +350% (6 → 27 drafts)
## Rating Dimension Trends
- **Novelty**: 2.94 → 3.33 (+0.38) ↑
- **Maturity**: 4.39 → 3.52 (-0.87) ↓
- **Overlap**: 2.72 → 2.54 (-0.18) ↓
- **Momentum**: 3.11 → 3.50 (+0.39) ↑
- **Relevance**: 3.44 → 4.00 (+0.56) ↑
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